Moscow's Ultimatum: Armenia Given One Month to Choose Between EU and EAEU

According to sources cited by the Armenian daily newspaper Hraparak, Armenia could face severe restrictions if it fails to clarify its stance between the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), a Russian-led economic bloc. Adding weight to these threats, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council, recently stated that a potential severance of ties with Moscow would lead to a profound economic collapse for Armenia.

Potential Russian Sanctions

The publication outlines that Moscow's pressure campaign could be executed across several critical sectors:

• Tightening migration policy: According to the source, Moscow could force the return of "hundreds of thousands of labor migrants" to their homeland. This would deal a "serious blow" to the Armenian economy, which benefits significantly from their remittances.
• Aviation restrictions: The suspension or "significant restriction" of direct flights between Russia and Armenia is currently under consideration.
• Energy supplies: Reports indicate that leverage could also be applied to natural gas supplies, a sector where Armenia is heavily dependent on Russian imports.

"What exactly they mean and what to expect beyond economic sanctions and export restrictions, our sources do not know in detail," Hraparak reports.

Expert and Political Context

Economist Aghasi Tavadyan assesses that Armenia's potential withdrawal from the EAEU would have far more devastating consequences for the country than for the economic organization itself. Previously, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan publicly acknowledged that simultaneous membership in both the EAEU and the EU is fundamentally impossible, highlighting the inevitable geopolitical choice facing Yerevan.